A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining 51 cards, n cards are drawn and are found to be spades. If the probability of the lost card to be a spade is 1150, then n is equal to .
Answer
2
Solution
E1: lost card is a spade, P(E1)= 14; E2: lost card is not a spade, P(E2)= 34
A: the n cards drawn are all spades
P(A|E1)= 12Cn51Cn, P(A|E2)= 13Cn51Cn
By Bayes' theorem: P(E1|A)= 14 12Cn 14 12Cn+ 34 13Cn= 11+ 3 13Cn12Cn
13Cn12Cn= 1313-n
P(E1|A)= 13-n13-n+39= 13-n52-n
13-n52-n= 1150 650-50n=572-11n
39n=78 n=2
Answer: 2