Bag B1 contains 6 white and 4 blue balls, Bag B2 contains 4 white and 6 blue balls, and Bag B3 contains 5 white and 5 blue balls. One of the bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball is white, then the probability that the ball is drawn from Bag B2 is:
- 25
- 415
- 13
- 23
Answer
(2) 415
Solution
P(B1) = P(B2) = P(B3) = 13
Let W = the ball drawn is white.
P(W|B1) = 610, P(W|B2) = 410, P(W|B3) = 510
By Bayes' theorem:
P(B2|W) = P(B2)P(W|B2) P(Bi)P(W|Bi)
= 13 410 13 ( 610 + 410 + 510 )
= 415
Answer: (2)