A bag contains 19 unbiased coins and one coin with head on both sides. One coin drawn at random is tossed and head turns up. If the probability that the drawn coin was unbiased, is mn, (m, n) = 1, then n2 - m2 is equal to :
- 64
- 80
- 60
- 72
Answer
(2) 80
Solution
Let E1: coin is unbiased, E2: coin is two-headed, H: head turns up.
P(E1) = 1920, P(E2) = 120, P(H|E1) = 12, P(H|E2) = 1
By Bayes' theorem:
P(E1|H) = 1920 12 1920 12 + 120 1 = 1919 + 2 = 1921
m = 19, n = 21
n2 - m2 = (21 - 19)(21 + 19) = 80
Answer: (2)