A candidate has to go to the examination centre to appear in an examination. The candidate uses only one means of transportation for the entire distance out of bus, scooter and car. The probabilities of the candidate going by bus, scooter and car, respectively, are 25, 15 and 25. The probabilities that the candidate reaches late at the examination centre are 15, 13 and 14 if the candidate uses bus, scooter and car, respectively. Given that the candidate reached late at the examination centre, the probability that the candidate travelled by bus is :
- 1137
- 1237
- 1337
- 1437
Answer
(2) 1237
Solution
Let B, S, C: the candidate goes by bus, scooter, car; L: the candidate reaches late
P(B)= 25, P(S)= 15, P(C)= 25; P(L|B)= 15, P(L|S)= 13, P(L|C)= 14
Total probability: P(L)= 25 15+ 15 13+ 25 14
= 225+ 115+ 110= 12+10+15150= 37150
Bayes' theorem: P(B|L)= P(B)P(L|B)P(L)= 12/15037/150= 1237
Answer: (2)