A letter is known to have arrived by post either from KANPUR or from ANANTPUR. On the envelope just two consecutive letters AN are visible. The probability, that the letter came from ANANTPUR, is:
- 710
- 1017
- 1219
- 719
Answer
(2) 1017
Solution
Let E1: letter from KANPUR, E2: letter from ANANTPUR, A: the visible pair is AN. P(E1)=P(E2)= 12
KANPUR: pairs KA, AN, NP, PU, UR (5 pairs), AN once P(A|E1)= 15
ANANTPUR: pairs AN, NA, AN, NT, TP, PU, UR (7 pairs), AN twice P(A|E2)= 27
By Bayes' theorem,
P(E2|A)= 12 27 12 27+ 12 15= 27 1735= 1017
Answer: (2)