A bag contains 8 balls, whose colours are either white or black. 4 balls are drawn at random without replacement and it was found that 2 balls are white and other 2 balls are black. The probability that the bag contains equal number of white and black balls is :
- 25
- 27
- 17
- 15
Answer
(2) 27
Solution
Let Ek: bag has k white balls; A: 2 white + 2 black drawn
∵ A is possible only for k=2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (equally likely)
P(A|Ek)= kC2 8-kC28C4, numerators 15, 30, 36, 30, 15 (sum 126)
By Bayes' theorem (equal priors and 8C4 cancel):
P(E4|A)= 36126= 27
Answer: (2)