A company has two plants A and B to manufacture motorcycles. 60\% motorcycles are manufactured at plant A and the remaining are manufactured at plant B. 80\% of the motorcycles manufactured at plant A are rated of the standard quality, while 90\% of the motorcycles manufactured at plant B are rated of the standard quality. A motorcycle picked up randomly from the total production is found to be of the standard quality. If p is the probability that it was manufactured at plant B, then 126p is
- 54
- 66
- 56
- 64
Answer
(1) 54
Solution
P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4; P(S|A) = 0.8, P(S|B) = 0.9 (S: standard quality)
Bayes' theorem: p = P(B|S) = 0.4 0.90.6 0.8 + 0.4 0.9
= 0.360.84 = 37
126p = 126 37 = 54
Answer: (1)