There are three bags X, Y and Z. Bag X contains 5 one-rupee coins and 4 five-rupee coins; Bag Y contains 4 one-rupee coins and 5 five-rupee coins and Bag Z contains 3 one-rupee coins and 6 five-rupee coins. A bag is selected at random and a coin drawn from it at random is found to be a one-rupee coin. Then the probability, that it came from bag Y, is :
- 12
- 13
- 512
- 14
Answer
(2) 13
Solution
E = one-rupee coin drawn; P(X) = P(Y) = P(Z) = 13
P(E|X) = 59, P(E|Y) = 49, P(E|Z) = 39
Bayes' theorem (equal priors cancel):
P(Y|E) = 45 + 4 + 3 = 412 = 13
Answer: (2)